US President Donald Trump signs an executive order, in the Oval Office of the White House, January 20, 2025. © Jim WATSON / POOL / AFP
January 20 marked Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States. In 2018, his comments referring to African nations as “shithole countries” had provoked an outcry, symbolizing a clear lack of interest in the continent. Between migration restrictions, cuts in humanitarian aid and a lack of interest in the continent, his first term had already left a bitter taste in Africa. This second round promises to be just as stormy, for although Donald Trump promises a “golden age” for an America to which he wants to “restore its greatness”, his protectionist agenda could profoundly reshape relations between Africa and the United States.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)Barely inaugurated, the 47ᵉ President of the United States is busy proving that he keeps his promises. Among the dozens of executive orders he has been busy signing in front of the cameras, one suspends development aid for 90 days, during which ”the effectiveness of the programs and their consistency with U.S. foreign policy will be evaluated”. A month earlier, on a visit to Angola, his predecessor Joe Biden announced over a billion dollars in humanitarian aid for African populations displaced by unprecedented droughts. The contrast is striking.
The new occupant of the White House has announced his intention to give priority to bilateral agreements, prompting a number of observers to question the possible imposition of tariffs on African imports to the United States. The possibility that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which allows 32 sub-Saharan African countries to export duty-free to the US market, will not be renewed in 2025 reinforces these concerns. Donald Trump could make access to this scheme conditional on American political, economic and security interests being taken into account in the face of strategic rivals, mainly China, Russia and Iran. South Africa, a major beneficiary of AGOA thanks to its automotive, chemical and agricultural sectors, could also lose this advantage. South Africa’s membership of the Brics and the “genocide” proceedings brought against Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) are not well received by the new administration. These factors fueled criticism from some Republicans, who called for his exclusion from the program. True to his “America First” doctrine, Trump could therefore reinforce this economic orientation in his second term.
AFRICA AND AMERICAN DISENGAGEMENT
This return to the White House is accompanied by renewed hostility to multilateral organizations such as the UN and the African Union. But it is above all the United States’ withdrawal from the WHO that is causing concern. “The WHO has swindled us”, said Trump on January 21. The main contributor, Washington alone finances almost half of the organization’s annual budget, with $500 million a year. His departure would be a major blow to Africa’s already fragile healthcare systems. AIDS programs, largely financed by the United States via PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), which has saved 25 million lives in twenty years, could also suffer. At the same time, USAID’s future also appears uncertain. In an X Spaces conversation on Monday February 3, Elon Musk relayed Donald Trump’s comments that USAID should be “cut”, with its funding already frozen for 90 days and dozens of its employees put on leave. This decision could have far-reaching consequences, since in 2023, a quarter of the US aid envelope was earmarked for African countries, to the tune of $17.4 billion: crucial funding for dozens of countries facing major challenges.
A STRATEGIC PIVOT FOR AMERICAN POLICY TOWARDS CHINA
In this dynamic of withdrawal from multilateral commitments, Africa nevertheless remains a major strategic axis for the United States, not least because of its natural resources. Countries rich in critical minerals and rare earths are likely to attract increased attention, as their resources are coveted by technology giants, notably Elon Musk’s company. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Guinea. Highly coveted, these resources could be at the heart of American policy, in particular to counter China’s growing influence. The Trump administration could encourage the establishment of its companies and finance infrastructure projects, such as the Lobito Corridor linking Angola, the DRC and Zambia, to facilitate the transport of these strategic minerals.
On the other hand, rising tensions between the two superpowers could prompt China to further strengthen its trade relations with the continent, in particular to compensate for reduced trade with the Americans. This dynamic would offer opportunities for African countries, particularly in the raw materials and agricultural products sectors, with a potential increase in their exports to China.
Political stunt or real ambition to slash the international aid budget? Only Donald Trump knows. In any case, the announcements that have followed one another since his inauguration specify the clear turn towards exacerbated protectionism that the now 47ᵉ President of the United States promised during his campaign.
Ines Lihb